Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria appears to be giving Islamic State new life, but U.S. counterterrorism officials caution the terror group’s next moves are far from certain.The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, warn Islamic State is well-versed in using regional conflicts to its advantage, having done so in Iraq in 2005-2006, and again in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.And they note that IS has used the seven months since the fall in March of its last territorial stronghold in Baghuz, Syria, to lay a foundation of “dispersed networks” — comprising an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 fighters — for a prolonged and vicious insurgency.”It is not clear at this time how ISIS may adjust their strategy in Syria in light of the Turkish incursion,” a U.S. counterterrorism official told VOA, using an acronym for the terror group.FILE – Smoke billows from burning tires to decrease visibility for Turkish warplanes on the outskirts of the town of Tal Tamr, Syria, along the border with Turkey in the northeastern Hassakeh province, Oct. 16, 2019.Until Turkey launched its operation in Syria’s northeast earlier this month, most of IS’s operations had targeted Kurdish security forces. There was also speculation that IS cells might try to free some of the approximately 12,000 fighters being held by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as well as the tens of thousands of IS wives and other family members in displaced persons camps across the region — something IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi encouraged in a September speech.Just how many captured IS fighters may have escaped or been freed remains uncertain. U.S. officials say both Turkey and the SDF have assured them the prisoners remain incarcerated, though they admit the absence of U.S. forces on the ground means the claims cannot be verified.Both Turkey and the SDF have likewise accused each other of releasing IS prisoners to fight for them during the current hostilities — allegations each side rejects.Conditions ripe for thriving ISU.S. officials fear it is the type of atmosphere in which IS tends to thrive.
“Mistrust of the government, the inability of security guarantors to assure the safety of local populations, and divisions along ethnic and religious lines are all factors that ISIS has previously exploited,” the U.S. counterterrorism official said.And there have been indications, of late, that the terror group is growing bolder.Instead, Shatz suggested IS may look to another page of its revenue-boosting playbook —hijacking oil tankers, which could test the limits of a residual U.S. force.”Today in Syria, if oil leaves the northeast oil fields by truck and there is limited coalition or SDF control of roads, ISIS could repeat this,” he said.Other analysts warn the bigger threat to the oil fields comes from Iran, Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, all of whom have long sought to take part in the profits, but which could enable IS in the process.”The challenge here is that it is not possible to separate the counter-ISIS requirement from the broader issue of Assad and his backers,” according to Jennifer Cafarella, research director at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).”ISIS will be able to exploit the instability in eastern Syria that Assad and his backers would generate as they move in to seize oil fields and other infrastructure,” she said, adding that neither the Syrian regime or Russian forces have shown the ability to prevent the terror group from reconstituting — a view long shared by U.S. military officials.”This is visible in central Syria in the areas around Palmyra, where ISIS’s insurgency is gaining momentum the fastest,” Cafarella said.
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