Facing an impeachment inquiry, U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to make any new decisions on North Korea even as Pyongyang has elevated warnings to pressure Washington to grant greater concessions on stalled denuclearization talks by the end of the year, experts said.“Right now, [Trump] has very little political space to work in,” because of the impeachment inquiry, said Ken Gause, director of the Adversary Analytics Program at the CNA research center. “I don’t think he’s going to waste political capital on North Korea” he continued, adding Washington “would not react [to Pyongyang’s threats] by agreeing to sanctions relief.”Missile launchesPyongyang has increased pressure on Washington in apparent attempts to change the U.S. position by the end of the year through a series of warnings that included a missile launch Thursday.People watch television file footage of a North Korean missile launch at a railway station in Seoul, Oct. 31, 2019. North Korea fired two projectiles Oct. 31, the South’s military said.North Korea said it tested North Korea’s chief nuclear negotiator Kim Myong Gil is seen outside the North Korean embassy in Stockholm, Oct. 5, 2019.The talks remained deadlocked after the breakdown of the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi presides over the U.S. House of Representatives vote on a resolution that sets up the next steps in the impeachment inquiry of U.S. President Donald Trump on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.Impeachment inquiryTrump has been under increasing domestic pressure since September when the Democrats in the House launched an impeachment inquiry against him that accelerated Thursday as the FILE – President Donald Trump reacts to the crowd after speaking during his reelection kickoff rally at the Amway Center, June 18, 2019, in Orlando, Fla.Samore thinks Kim would be careful to not heighten tensions to the point at which it could diminish Trump’s chances for reelection.“Kim Jong Un probably hopes that President Trump will be reelected, so he will be reluctant to take actions that would hurt Trump’s domestic position, such as resuming nuclear and long-range missile tests,” Samore said.Trump was the first U.S. president to deal directly with Kim through three face-to-face meetings starting with the historic Singapore Summit in June 2018 and including the impromptu inter-Korean summit in June this year.Gause thinks the North Koreans may have painted themselves into a corner by setting the deadline in hopes of getting sanctions relief from Trump.“They thought they had that lined up in Hanoi,” Gause said. “They also had a thought that maybe in Stockholm, they were going to get something. And now, they’re finding out the U.S. is taking a hard line, which really puts them in a very difficult position for getting any sort of sanctions relief.”Despite Pyongyang’s deadline pressure, Michael O’Hanlon, research director at the Brookings Institution, said, “The United States should make reasonable policy proposals without regard to the time frame” set by Pyongyang.Vershbow thinks offering concessions would prompt Pyongyang to increase its demands.“The U.S. needs to signal readiness to continue negotiations, picking up on where things were in Stockholm and try to put the North Koreans on the defensive that they didn’t engage seriously in that meeting and negotiations about reciprocal compromise, not one-sided concessions,” said Vershbow. “Showing weakness at this time would be counterproductive. It may only escalate North Korean demands.”
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