Afghanistan’s U.S.-backed government still controls just over half of the country’s districts, despite an expanded U.S. military campaign in the country, according to a U.S. government watchdog’s latest assessment of the conflict.
The Afghan military also experienced a large reduction in personnel over the past year, according to the quarterly report released Tuesday by the Special Inspector General on Afghanistan Reconstruction, or SIGAR.
Insurgents control or influence 14.5 percent of Afghanistan’s districts, as of January 31, 2018, according to SIGAR. Kabul controls 56.3 percent of the districts, with the remaining areas contested.
A stalemate
Senior U.S. military officials have repeatedly acknowledged the nearly 17-year-old conflict remains a stalemate, even while touting some successes under the new strategy announced by President Donald Trump in August.
Trump’s strategy appeared to commit the U.S. to Afghanistan indefinitely. It involves pressuring Pakistan to end its support for Afghan militants, supporting Kabul’s effort to engage the Taliban in peace talks, and dropping more bombs on the country.
More bombs in 2018
The U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan dropped more bombs during the first quarter of 2018 than it has in the same period in any of the last 15 years, according to a VOA analysis of monthly data released by the Pentagon.
The violence in Afghanistan is expected to worsen as fighting picks up during the warmer months. Last week, the Taliban announced the start of its annual spring offensive, rejecting Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s offer of peace talks without preconditions.
Islamic State has also carried out numerous high-profile attacks, including a twin suicide bombing in Kabul on Monday that killed at least 26 people, including nine journalists.
Afghan defense
U.S. officials have pointed to successes, including the increasing capability of the Afghan Air Force (AAF), which began conducing airstrikes two years ago. The AAF carries out between 4 to 12 airstrikes every day, according to the Afghan Ministry of Defense.
But the Afghan armed forces experienced a sharp decline in personnel strength from a year ago, according to SIGAR. The Afghan National Police shrunk by over 23,000 people over the past year. The Afghan National Army saw a 4,818 person decrease.
Reacting to the report Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis insisted the Afghan military is being made more capable.
“You’ll notice that more of the force are special forces, advised and assisted, accompanied by NATO mentors,” he told reporters. “And these are the most effective forces, so the expansion there is why the enemy has been unable to take any district centers, any provincial centers or make any advances there.”
“We’ll stand by the Afghan people. We’ll stand by the Afghan government and the NATO mission will continue as we drive them to a political settlement,” Mattis added.
Disclosure hurdles
The U.S. Congress created SIGAR to provide independent oversight of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. The organization provides quarterly updates to lawmakers.
Over the past year, SIGAR has complained that U.S. and Afghan military officials have classified certain key metrics about the conflict, effectively preventing the data from appearing in the quarterly reports.
This quarter, SIGAR said Kabul and Washington provided more data than the preceding two quarters. For instance, the latest SIGAR report contained data about who controls what districts in Afghanistan.
However, information related to Afghan defense force casualties and other key figures about Afghan military readiness continues to be restricted.
…