As a top North Korean military official concluded a visit to China this week in an effort to boost military ties with Beijing, experts said Washington’s big-deal approach could push Pyongyang to deepen its military relations with Beijing, a consequence that could create a rift between Seoul and Washington.“If we are not going to play a sophisticated strategy … then I guess we’re going to just drive North Korea into the arms of China,” said Ken Gause, director for Adversary Analytics Program at CNA. “It puts China in a greater position to drive a wedge between the United States and South Korea if North Korea is leaning toward China.”Kim Su Gil, director of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People’s Army (KPA), FILE – Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un walk during Xi’s visit in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this picture released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency, June 21, 2019.Closer ties with ChinaThe pledge to bolster military ties between Beijing and Pyongyang followed an agreement that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping made during their fifth summit held in June in Pyongyang. The two leaders agreed to “maintain the tradition of high-level exchanges.”Pyongyang and Beijing renewed relations when Kim and Xi met for their first summit in March 2018. Relations had been rocky since Kim took power in 2011 and carried out nuclear and missile tests despite Beijing’s opposition. The alliance between Beijing and Pyongyang dates to the Korean War in 1950 when the Chinese army fought on the side of North Korea against South Korea and the U.S.Experts said while the latest military meeting was largely seen as Beijing’s effort to restore its relations with Pyongyang, including military ties, Washington’s so-called “big-deal approach” could prompt North Korea to pivot toward China, which has been more lax about enforcing sanctions.“We can go and continue with maximum pressure like we are now,” said CNA’s Gause, referring to a key focus of U.S. policy. “And if we do, it’s going to just push China and North Korea closer together.”
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FILE – People watch a TV news program reporting about North Korea’s firing projectiles with a file image at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Aug. 16, 2019.Missiles fly, talks do notTalks between Washington and Pyongyang have been stalled since the Hanoi summit in February, but when Trump and Kim held an FILE – U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, left, and South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo, right, shake hands ahead of a meeting at Defense Ministry in Seoul, South Korea, Aug. 9, 2019.China may also seek tighter military cooperation with North Korea if the U.S. decides to deploy intermediate-range missiles in Asia. U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said earlier this month that he favored placing the missiles in Asia, which angered China.“If we are destined for increased U.S.-[China] strategic rivalry, then it would make sense for Beijing to ensure that North Korea remain within its orbit, even while making every effort to wean [South Korea] away from the U.S. alliance structure,” Revere said.The U.S. consideration for the missile deployment came after it formally withdrew from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty Aug. 2. Washington said the move was a response to repeated treaty violations by Russia.The U.S. and former Soviet Union agreed upon the Cold War arms control treaty in 1987. It banned them from deploying their nuclear and conventional land-based missiles with ranges between 480 to 5,500 kilometers anywhere in the world.Bolton said earlier this month that the U.S. willingness to deploy intermediate-range missiles in Asia is in part an effort to protect South Korea.“Such a move would increase likelihood of expanded strategic military cooperation among China, North Korea and the Russians,” said Revere, adding, “The ‘great game’ in East Asia is about to get more interesting and dangerous.”
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