After three summits and several exchanges of letters between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Washington must now deal with Pyongyang’s five missile tests since February and near muted talks on denuclearization, results generated by Trump’s lack of criticism of the launches, experts said.North Korea fired two more missiles Friday, making the launch U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo links hands with Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan and Thailand’s Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai at the East Asia Summit meeting in Bangkok, Aug.2, 2019.Also Friday, U.S. Secretary of State People watch a TV that shows a file picture of a North Korean missile for a news report on North Korea firing short-range ballistic missiles, in Seoul, South Korea, July 31, 2019.‘No progress’Experts said despite the U.S. efforts, the prospects for denuclearizing are fading as North Korea takes opposite steps as seen through its tests.“There has been no progress toward North Korean denuclearization since the Singapore summit,” said Bruce Klingner, former CIA deputy division chief for Korea and a current fellow at the Heritage Foundation. “Instead, Pyongyang has built another six to seven estimated nuclear weapons and improved the production facilities for its fissile material.”Evans Revere, acting assistant secretary for East Asia and the Pacific at the State Department during the George W. Bush administration, said, “The opposite of denuclearization is happening, as North Korea continues to expand and enhance its nuclear and ballistic missile arsenals.”Revere said the string of launches demonstrates Pyongyang’s weapons development is becoming more advanced.In May, Pyongyang tested “an apparent new ballistic missile system that is designed to conduct deep strikes against U.S. and [South Korean] military bases, forces and population centers,” Revere said.North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches the test-fire of two short-range ballistic missiles, in this undated picture released by North Korea’s Central News Agency, July 26, 2019.The launch July 25 was aimed at signaling the U.S. that it is determined to ramp up “its nuclear, missile, and first-strike missile capabilities,” he said.Wednesday’s launch, described as FILE – U.S. President Donald Trump holds up the document he and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un signed, June 12, 2018, in Singapore.Details lackingThe prospects of denuclearizing North Korea began with the historical Singapore summit held in June 2018 when Trump and Kim met and agreed to work toward denuclearization and achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula, although critics argue the joint statement the FILE – U.S. President Donald Trump, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in leave after a meeting at the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, in Panmunjom, South Korea, June 30, 2019.While visiting Seoul in June for a summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, Trump invited Kim to “shake his hand and say Hello” via Twitter. Trump met with Kim at the inter-Korean border, even stepping across the North Korean side of the border. There, the two agreed to resume working-level talks. But less than a month later, Pyongyang fired missiles last Thursday and again this week on Wednesday and Friday, jolting its neighbors and unnerving North Korean observers in the U.S.Trump downplayed the provocations saying, “I have no problem,” in response to Friday’s launch, in an apparent effort to save diplomacy. In response to last week’s launch, Revere, of the State Department, said, “The Trump administration is prepared to go very far to keep the prospect of dialogue with North Korea alive.”Following North Korea’s missile launches Wednesday, “It was unacceptable for the U.S. president to twice dismiss the threat posed by North Korea’s development” of advanced missiles that is intended to attack [South Korea] and U.S. troops deployed in South Korea,” he added.Questionable relationshipExperts said North Korea’s tests make the Trump-Kim relationship look questionable and prospects for diplomatic solutions dubious, while Trump’s lack of criticism on North Korea’s launches fosters bad behavior.Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council said, “North Korea’s continued work on its nuclear weapons program and missiles as demonstrated by testing new short-range missiles is beginning to make the Trump-Kim relationship wear thin, if not look like a bit of a fraud.”Christopher Hill, a chief negotiator with North Korea during the George W. Bush administration, said, “I’m skeptical that they have much traction on [diplomacy] right now.”Revere said, “The lack of a clear and vigorous response to earlier launches effectively gave [North Korea] carte blanche to continue to develop and test these dangerous weapons.” He added, “We have now basically normalized such launches.”The missile launches are also making experts doubt the prospects for working-level talks with Pyongyang.Hill said, “I don’t think the North Koreans are really prepared for a serious negotiation. But since they agreed to have a negotiation, I think they ought to move ahead.”Dennis Wilder, the National Security Council’s senior director for East Asia affairs during the George W. Bush administration, said, “Kim has never been interested in working-level talks with Washington. And I think that’s going to be kind of his continued position.”If Pyongyang continues to dodge Washington, Hill said, “It’s possible the talks could reach a dead end. That could happen at some point. It may have happened [already], but we don’t know that.”Wilder said, “It would certainly lead to another very serious deterioration in the U.S.-North Korean relations, as we had at the end of 2017 where there would be threats and counterthreats.”Wilder, however, did not rule out a sudden turnaround, a possibility in top-down diplomacy where negotiations occur at the leadership level.“This is the unique feature of Trump diplomacy at this very high level,” Wilder said. “It can change overnight. … When you have two chief executives, who can suddenly make dramatic shifts, possibilities are much wider.”
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